What’s new in our Algeria | Macroeconomic report Q3 2019

The ‘What’s new’ section is designed to:

  • Shed light on the continual ‘behind-the-scenes’ work that goes into improving our macroeconomic research and analysis. This might include improvements to our data collection processes, changes to our forecast methodologies, etc.
  • Enable our long-standing partners to easily identify any changes and understand why things have changed.
  • Allow us to flag-up significant changes.
Q3 is budget season!
As usual, the details of Algeria’s budget bill for 2020 began to emerge towards the end of the third quarter of the year. To help our readers navigate the anticipated changes to legislation as well as projected government spending for the year to come, we’ve included dedicated budget bill boxes throughout this edition of the macroeconomic report.
New additions to the report
This edition of the report now features new deep dive boxes that allow us to analyse pertinent issues in more detail. This edition includes:
  • A fuller analysis of Algeria’s GDP per capita and what it means for the country’s economy, which also includes a brief analysis of the country’s Dutch disease and Middle Income Trap.
  • A more nuanced discussion of the effect of the ongoing crisis on Algeria’s demography and the possible knock-on effect it may have for the country’s economic future.
  • A detailed discussion about the possibility of Algeria’s return to the foreign debt market as the first concrete signs begin to emerge that this is becoming a likely scenario.
This quarter, we have also added improved comparisons of our own forecasts with those of other agencies including not just the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but also the World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN). This is designed to increase our neutrality and provide a fuller range of expectations with regard to Algeria’s economic trajectory.
Meanwhile, we have included more detailed information on the upside and downside risks to our forecasts. We are confident in the forecasts we provide. However, we acknowledge the need to provide as much information as possible on the bigger picture. We want to equip our readers with the tools to understand the various factors that may have a bearing on different scenarios. This is never more important than when visibility is at a premium, as it is in Algeria today.
Improvements behind the scenes
As we do every quarter, we have updated our macroeconomic models with all of the new and pertinent data we have collected from a range of local and international sources since our last publication.
We have also expanded out list of input sources for our GDP model to allow us to triangulate the data and reduce the possibility of errors occurring in historical data.
Additionally, we have improved our archiving process to build a permanent comprehensive in-house library for historical data. We have also strengthened our ongoing monitoring to ensure that we never miss a key data publication and avoid gaps in our models.
Click here to find out more about our ‘Algeria | Macroeconomic report Q3 2019’.